Is the Warhammer Online userbase shrinking?

[Mr. Hrm]

Apparently the hours of WAR played by XFire users is steadily declining. Is this a sign of things to come?

Yesterday I wrote in a post on a different subject about Warhammer Online that WAR was shrinking. Somebody with not a lot of reading skills read that as "WAR is sinking", and asked me what evidence I had for that. So, for the record, I don't think that WAR is sinking, but I do think it is shrinking. Evidence, besides servers being merged, is for example from XFire, where the hours of WAR played by XFire users is steadily declining.

Tobold's MMORPG Blog: WAR is shrinking

[Tenebrous]

The sample needs to be taken over a much larger period of time. A large portion of the playerbase that I have spoken with consists of, like myself, college students. This means that at this time of the year, finals are swiftly approaching and work is piling up. I have not been able to get on WAR for three weeks, so I would be considered part of the decline. I'd like to see a new data set after the new year. (And not to belittle XFire, but I find it annoying after a while - some people may just stop using it).

I am not completely denying that it is getting smaller - they are shifting around servers on a large scale and I'm sure there are more than one reasons for that, population included. There are very few games with such hype that could sustain their initial playerbase without having a small drop. It will manage to shake free some players from other games still, and possibly introduce some into the MMO market.

I fear it will never be on the scale of WoW but the game still has a long period of life ahead of it.